bayesRatings

Orioles at Rays

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BAL 6 – TB 16
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL0010301106121
TB1502440016181
Team box
BAL·TB
12
hits
18
2
home runs
1
3
walks
7
11
strikeouts
4
183
pitches thrown
159
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB4-5404
Junior CamineroTB2-4314
Ryan ViladeTB3-3103
Adley RutschmanBAL2-4212
Pete AlonsoBAL3-5002
Jonny DeLucaTB2-5003
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL3.28723
Shane McClanahan (W)TB5.06426

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +12
BAL +12
123456789
largest lead: TB 12 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 43%, TB 57% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
TB by 0.9
Expected score
TB 4.8 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.7
OriolesThe matchupRays
+135Our fair odds−135
3.9Expected runs4.8
−0.12Power rating+0.10
4.4Runs / game4.6
5.3Allowed / game4.0
7.7Hits / game8.7
1.04Home runs / game0.84
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
21−26Season record30−15
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+13543%+11945.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−13557%−14258.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.9
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.9 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more44%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more33%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 11.81 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TBShane McClanahan SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TB
May 17 at WSH
last game
May 17 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
BAL·TB
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.4
runs / game
4.6
5.3
runs allowed / game
4.0
21−26
season record
30−15
12−12
home record
16−5
9−14
away record
14−10
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.7
1.04
home runs / game
0.84
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.60
errors / game
0.69

Rating Trend

BAL · TB · 54 days
Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at TBBAL 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TBTB 11 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at BALTB 11 − 3
Jun 27, 2025at BALBAL 22 − 8
Jun 19, 2025at TBBAL 4 − 1

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W