bayesRatings

Marlins at Rays

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 3:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIA 10 – TB 5
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
MIA000000101810154
TB00100000135101
Team box
MIA·TB
15
hits
10
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
10
strikeouts
9
172
pitches thrown
152
4
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA2-5104
Liam HicksMIA2-5102
Junior CamineroTB2-5102
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-2111
Otto LopezMIA2-4001
Jakob MarseeMIA3-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy AlcantaraMIA6.07006
Pete Fairbanks (W)MIA1.01012
Nick MartinezTB6.05014
Hunter Bigge (L)TB1.06720

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +8
MIA +8
12345678910
largest lead: TB 1 · MIA 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 42%, TB 58% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
TB by 0.9
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 3.7 MIA
Expected total
8.3
MarlinsThe matchupRays
+137Our fair odds−137
3.7Expected runs4.6
−0.11Power rating+0.11
4.2Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game3.9
8.0Hits / game8.7
0.78Home runs / game0.84
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
20−25Season record29−14
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+13742%+11446.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−13758%−13757.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.9
MIAMiami Marlins+0.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.9 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.06 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.02 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TB
May 15 at TB
last game
May 15 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
MIA·TB
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.2
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.9
20−25
season record
29−14
14−12
home record
15−4
6−13
away record
14−10
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
8.7
0.78
home runs / game
0.84
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.64
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

MIA · TB · 52 days
Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
May 15at TBTB 7 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at TBMIA 11 − 10
Jun 6, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 18, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 1
May 17, 2025at MIATB 4 − 0
May 16, 2025at MIAMIA 9 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at TBMIA 6 − 2
Jul 30, 2024at TBTB 9 − 3
Jun 5, 2024at MIATB 5 − 3

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W