bayesRatings

Marlins at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final MIA 9 – MIN 5
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA2204010009111
MIN101020010582
Team box
MIA·MIN
11
hits
8
1
home runs
3
5
walks
3
7
strikeouts
13
141
pitches thrown
170
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN2-4222
Owen CaissieMIA1-3212
Kody ClemensMIN2-4111
Liam HicksMIA1-5103
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4301
Leo JimenezMIA3-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Max Meyer (W)MIA5.27429
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN3.07641

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
MIA +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · MIA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, MIN 51% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.8 – 4.8 MIN
Expected total
9.6
MarlinsThe matchupTwins
+106Our fair odds−106
4.8Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating−0.12
4.2Runs / game4.7
4.3Allowed / game4.9
8.0Hits / game7.9
0.76Home runs / game1.10
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
19−23Season record19−23
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10649%−13156.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10651%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byMIN wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more38%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAMax Meyer SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 17 Kstarted
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 8.78 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIN
May 12 at MIN
last game
May 12 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
MIA·MIN
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.2
runs / game
4.7
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.9
19−23
season record
19−23
14−12
home record
11−10
5−11
away record
8−13
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.9
0.76
home runs / game
1.10
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.64
errors / game
0.48

Rating Trend

MIA · MIN · 49 days
Miami MarlinsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
May 12at MINMIN 3 − 0
Jul 3, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at MIAMIN 2 − 1
Jul 1, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Sep 26, 2024at MINMIA 8 − 6
Sep 25, 2024at MINMIN 8 − 3
Sep 24, 2024at MINMIA 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at MIAMIA 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at MIAMIA 1 − 0
Apr 3, 2023at MIAMIN 11 − 1

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L