bayesRatings

Marlins at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final MIA 0 – MIN 3
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000000021
MIN00003000340
Team box
MIA·MIN
2
hits
4
0
home runs
1
0
walks
6
7
strikeouts
10
132
pitches thrown
89
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN1-3112
Kyle StowersMIA1-3000
Jakob MarseeMIA1-3000
Trevor LarnachMIN1-2100
Kody ClemensMIN1-4000
Luke KeaschallMIN1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury Perez (L)MIA6.03338
Bailey Ober (W)MIN9.02007

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, MIN 51% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.9 – 4.8 MIN
Expected total
9.7
MarlinsThe matchupTwins
+104Our fair odds−104
4.9Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating−0.13
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.4Allowed / game5.0
8.2Hits / game8.0
0.78Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
19−22Season record18−23
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10449%−11252.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10451%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byMIN wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIN
May 10 vs WSH
last game
May 10 at CLE
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
MIA·MIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.4
runs allowed / game
5.0
19−22
season record
18−23
14−12
home record
10−10
5−10
away record
8−13
W2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.0
0.78
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.63
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

MIA · MIN · 48 days
Miami MarlinsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MIN 3−6
Jul 3, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at MIAMIN 2 − 1
Jul 1, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Sep 26, 2024at MINMIA 8 − 6
Sep 25, 2024at MINMIN 8 − 3
Sep 24, 2024at MINMIA 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at MIAMIA 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at MIAMIA 1 − 0
Apr 3, 2023at MIAMIN 11 − 1

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L
May 2vs PHI4 − 0W
May 1vs PHI5 − 6L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L
May 1vs TOR3 − 7L
Apr 30vs TOR7 − 1W