bayesRatings

Marlins at Rays

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 6:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIA 2 – TB 7
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA010001000270
TB220201007112
Team box
MIA·TB
7
hits
11
2
home runs
2
0
walks
3
6
strikeouts
7
130
pitches thrown
112
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cedric MullinsTB4-4311
Jakob MarseeMIA3-4111
Yandy DiazTB1-3112
Taylor WallsTB1-3003
Connor NorbyMIA1-4111
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Janson Junk (L)MIA5.210734
Ian SeymourTB2.02102
Jesse Scholtens (W)TB5.05104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +5
MIA +5
123456789
largest lead: TB 5 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 43%, TB 57% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 4.6 – 3.8 MIA
Expected total
8.3
MarlinsThe matchupRays
+134Our fair odds−134
3.8Expected runs4.6
−0.10Power rating+0.10
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.5Allowed / game4.0
8.0Hits / game8.6
0.75Home runs / game0.81
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
20−24Season record28−14
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+13443%+10149.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−13457%−12655.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
MIAMiami Marlins+0.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 15%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more42%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more31%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAJanson Junk SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 16 Kstarted
TBIan Seymour SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TB
May 14 at MIN
last game
May 13 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
MIA·TB
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
20−24
season record
28−14
14−12
home record
14−4
6−12
away record
14−10
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.0
hits / game
8.6
0.75
home runs / game
0.81
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.66
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

MIA · TB · 51 days
Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Jun 8, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at TBMIA 11 − 10
Jun 6, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 18, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 1
May 17, 2025at MIATB 4 − 0
May 16, 2025at MIAMIA 9 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at TBMIA 6 − 2
Jul 30, 2024at TBTB 9 − 3
Jun 5, 2024at MIATB 5 − 3
Jun 4, 2024at MIATB 9 − 5

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W
May 4vs TOR5 − 1W
May 3vs SF2 − 1W