bayesRatings

Marlins at Twins

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final MIA 1 – MIN 9
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000000010151
MIN05100003990
Team box
MIA·MIN
5
hits
9
0
home runs
0
3
walks
6
8
strikeouts
7
147
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
James OutmanMIN2-3203
Austin MartinMIN2-4103
Otto LopezMIA2-4001
Josh BellMIN1-4002
Ryan KreidlerMIN2-3300
Christopher MorelMIA1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Garrett (L)MIA1.14553
Zebby Matthews (W)MIN7.04015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +8
MIA +8
123456789
largest lead: MIN 8 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 49%, MIN 51% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.9 – 4.8 MIN
Expected total
9.7
MarlinsThe matchupTwins
+104Our fair odds−104
4.9Expected runs4.8
−0.08Power rating−0.13
4.3Runs / game4.7
4.3Allowed / game5.0
8.1Hits / game7.9
0.77Home runs / game1.14
3.4Walks drawn / game3.9
20−23Season record19−24
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10449%−11653.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10451%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.2our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 14 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byMIN wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIABraxton Garrett SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 9.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·MIN
May 13 at MIN
last game
May 13 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
MIA·MIN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.3
runs / game
4.7
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.0
20−23
season record
19−24
14−12
home record
11−11
6−11
away record
8−13
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.9
0.77
home runs / game
1.14
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.65
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

MIA · MIN · 50 days
Miami MarlinsMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
May 13at MINMIA 9 − 5
May 12at MINMIN 3 − 0
Jul 3, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 1
Jul 2, 2025at MIAMIN 2 − 1
Jul 1, 2025at MIAMIA 2 − 0
Sep 26, 2024at MINMIA 8 − 6
Sep 25, 2024at MINMIN 8 − 3
Sep 24, 2024at MINMIA 4 − 1
Apr 5, 2023at MIAMIA 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2023at MIAMIA 1 − 0

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L
May 5vs BAL7 − 9L
May 4vs PHI0 − 1L
May 3vs PHI2 − 7L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W
May 3vs TOR4 − 3W
May 2vs TOR4 − 11L