bayesRatings

Marlins at Rays

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 11:15 AM CT · Tropicana Field · Final MIA 3 – TB 6
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA0020000103111
TB10031100670
Team box
MIA·TB
11
hits
7
0
home runs
2
3
walks
6
5
strikeouts
5
157
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Junior CamineroTB1-2112
Taylor WallsTB1-3003
Yandy DiazTB1-3111
Xavier EdwardsMIA2-5101
Otto LopezMIA2-4101
Kyle StowersMIA1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury Perez (L)MIA5.05545
Drew Rasmussen (W)TB5.17222
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · MIA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 43%, TB 57% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
TB by 0.8
Expected score
TB 4.7 – 3.9 MIA
Expected total
8.5
MarlinsThe matchupRays
+132Our fair odds−132
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.09Power rating+0.10
4.3Runs / game4.6
4.5Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game8.7
0.78Home runs / game0.82
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
21−25Season record29−15
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.2%56.8%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+13243%+12444.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−13257%−14859.7%———
SpreadTB by 0.8
MIAMiami Marlins+0.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 0.8 expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 6%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more43%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more32%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 20 Kstarted
TBDrew Rasmussen SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·TB
May 16 at TB
last game
May 16 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
MIA·TB
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.3
runs / game
4.6
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
21−25
season record
29−15
14−12
home record
15−5
7−13
away record
14−10
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
7−3
8.2
hits / game
8.7
0.78
home runs / game
0.82
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.72
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

MIA · TB · 53 days
Miami MarlinsTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
May 16at TBMIA 10 − 5
May 15at TBTB 7 − 2
Jun 8, 2025at TBTB 3 − 2
Jun 7, 2025at TBMIA 11 − 10
Jun 6, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
May 18, 2025at MIAMIA 5 − 1
May 17, 2025at MIATB 4 − 0
May 16, 2025at MIAMIA 9 − 4
Jul 31, 2024at TBMIA 6 − 2
Jul 30, 2024at TBTB 9 − 3

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 16at TB10 − 5W
May 15at TB2 − 7L
May 14at MIN1 − 9L
May 13at MIN9 − 5W
May 12at MIN0 − 3L
May 10vs WSH5 − 2W
May 9vs WSH8 − 7W
May 8vs WSH2 − 3L
May 7vs BAL4 − 3W
May 6vs BAL4 − 7L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W
May 6vs TOR3 − 0W
May 5vs TOR4 − 3W