bayesRatings

Orioles at Nationals

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 12:35 PM CT · Nationals Park · Final BAL 7 – WSH 3
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL1212000017110
WSH010100100391
Team box
BAL·WSH
11
hits
9
3
home runs
1
1
walks
4
9
strikeouts
11
160
pitches thrown
166
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gunnar HendersonBAL4-5112
Colton CowserBAL1-4112
Coby MayoBAL1-4112
Jacob YoungWSH1-2111
Jeremiah JacksonBAL2-4100
Keibert RuizWSH1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon YoungBAL3.25233
Anthony Nunez (W)BAL1.10003
Richard Lovelady (L)WSH1.12201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: WSH 0 · BAL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 48%, WSH 52% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BAL 5.8 – 5.5 WSH
Expected total
11.3
OriolesThe matchupNationals
+108Our fair odds−108
5.8Expected runs5.5
−0.12Power rating−0.14
4.3Runs / game5.5
5.3Allowed / game5.7
7.6Hits / game8.3
1.00Home runs / game1.22
3.9Walks drawn / game3.7
20−26Season record23−23
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+10848%−12154.7%———
WSHWashington Nationals−10852%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
BALBaltimore Orioles−0.3our margin————
WSHWashington Nationals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 9%Washington Nationals by 1 run: 14%Washington Nationals by 2 runs: 8%Washington Nationals by 3 runs: 6%Washington Nationals by 4 runs: 5%Washington Nationals by 5 runs: 4%Washington Nationals by 6 runs: 3%Washington Nationals by 7 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 8 runs: 2%Washington Nationals by 9 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 10 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 11 runs: 1%Washington Nationals by 12 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 13 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 14 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 15 runs: <1%Washington Nationals by 16 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byWSH wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more41%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more32%
Washington Nationals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 12 Kstarted
WSHRichard Lovelady RP · last 1 start: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·WSH
May 16 at WSH
last game
May 16 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
BAL·WSH
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
4.3
runs / game
5.5
5.3
runs allowed / game
5.7
20−26
season record
23−23
12−12
home record
8−13
8−14
away record
15−10
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
8.3
1.00
home runs / game
1.22
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.61
errors / game
0.91

Rating Trend

BAL · WSH · 53 days
Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 8−2
May 16at WSHWSH 13 − 3
May 15at WSHWSH 3 − 2
May 18, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BALWSH 10 − 6
May 16, 2025at BALWSH 4 − 3
Apr 24, 2025at WSHBAL 2 − 1
Apr 23, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Apr 22, 2025at WSHWSH 7 − 0
Aug 14, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 1
Aug 13, 2024at BALWSH 9 − 3

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L
May 7at MIA3 − 4L
May 6at MIA7 − 4W

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 16vs BAL13 − 3W
May 15vs BAL3 − 2W
May 14at CIN1 − 15L
May 13at CIN8 − 7W
May 12at CIN10 − 4W
May 10at MIA2 − 5L
May 9at MIA7 − 8L
May 8at MIA3 − 2W
May 7vs MIN7 − 5W
May 6vs MIN15 − 2W