bayesRatings

Orioles at Rays

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 12:10 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BAL 3 – TB 5
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL001002000390
TB01000004560
Team box
BAL·TB
9
hits
6
2
home runs
1
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
6
143
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4112
Samuel BasalloBAL2-4111
Hunter FeducciaTB2-3111
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5000
Jonathan ArandaTB1-3102
Richie PalaciosTB1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Shane BazBAL6.02136
Anthony Nunez (L)BAL0.23410
Steven MatzTB4.03125
Jesse Scholtens (W)TB4.06214
Ian Seymour (S)TB1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 2 · BAL 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 41%, TB 59% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
TB by 1.1
Expected score
TB 5.0 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.8
OriolesThe matchupRays
+143Our fair odds−143
3.9Expected runs5.0
−0.14Power rating+0.13
4.3Runs / game4.8
5.5Allowed / game4.0
7.7Hits / game8.9
1.06Home runs / game0.85
3.8Walks drawn / game3.4
21−28Season record32−15
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TB chance
Our model fair41.2%58.8%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+14341%−10350.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−14359%−12154.7%———
SpreadTB by 1.1
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.1 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more45%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more35%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 13 Kstarted
TBSteven Matz RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TB
May 19 at TB
last game
May 19 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
BAL·TB
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.13
4.3
runs / game
4.8
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
21−28
season record
32−15
12−12
home record
18−5
9−16
away record
14−10
L2
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.7
hits / game
8.9
1.06
home runs / game
0.85
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.59
errors / game
0.68

Rating Trend

BAL · TB · 56 days
Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
May 19at TBTB 4 − 1
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at TBBAL 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TBTB 11 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at BALTB 11 − 3

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 19vs BAL4 − 1W
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L