bayesRatings

Orioles at Rays

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 5:40 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final BAL 1 – TB 4
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL100000000140
TB10000102470
Team box
BAL·TB
4
hits
7
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
10
162
pitches thrown
110
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Yandy DiazTB2-3112
Taylor WardBAL1-4111
Richie PalaciosTB1-3101
Jonny DeLucaTB1-4001
Adley RutschmanBAL1-4000
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Bradish (L)BAL5.14236
Griffin JaxTB5.03116
Kevin Kelly (W)TB1.01000
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: TB 3 · BAL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 41%, TB 59% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
TB by 1.1
Expected score
TB 5.0 – 3.9 BAL
Expected total
8.9
OriolesThe matchupRays
+142Our fair odds−142
3.9Expected runs5.0
−0.14Power rating+0.12
4.4Runs / game4.8
5.5Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game8.9
1.06Home runs / game0.85
3.9Walks drawn / game3.4
21−27Season record31−15
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · TB chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+14241%−10751.8%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−14259%−11653.7%———
SpreadTB by 1.1
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Rays by 1.1 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 8%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 13%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 11%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 8%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more45%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 3 or more35%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 21 Kstarted
TBGriffin Jax SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 1.54 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·TB
May 18 at TB
last game
May 18 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
BAL·TB
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
4.4
runs / game
4.8
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
21−27
season record
31−15
12−12
home record
17−5
9−15
away record
14−10
L1
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.8
hits / game
8.9
1.06
home runs / game
0.85
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.60
errors / game
0.70

Rating Trend

BAL · TB · 55 days
Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
May 18at TBTB 16 − 6
Sep 25, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 5
Sep 24, 2025at BALTB 6 − 2
Sep 23, 2025at BALBAL 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at TBBAL 5 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at TBTB 4 − 3
Jul 18, 2025at TBTB 11 − 1
Jun 29, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1
Jun 28, 2025at BALTB 11 − 3
Jun 27, 2025at BALBAL 22 − 8

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W
May 9vs ATH2 − 6L
May 8vs ATH3 − 4L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 18vs BAL16 − 6W
May 17vs MIA6 − 3W
May 16vs MIA5 − 10L
May 15vs MIA7 − 2W
May 13at TOR3 − 5L
May 12at TOR7 − 6W
May 11at TOR8 − 5W
May 10at BOS4 − 1W
May 8at BOS0 − 2L
May 7at BOS8 − 4W