bayesRatings

Tigers at Orioles

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:15 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final DET 4 – BAL 7
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET101200000471
BAL003301007140
Team box
DET·BAL
7
hits
14
1
home runs
2
0
walks
3
12
strikeouts
10
171
pitches thrown
126
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL1-3114
Jackson HollidayBAL2-3212
Hao-Yu LeeDET2-3002
Kevin McGonigleDET1-4111
Gunnar HendersonBAL3-5200
Leody TaverasBAL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Flaherty (L)DET3.18307
Keegan AkinBAL1.01102
Chris Bassitt (W)BAL4.16304
Anthony Nunez (S)BAL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 3 · DET 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 51%, BAL 49% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.0
TigersThe matchupOrioles
−104Our fair odds+104
4.8Expected runs4.2
−0.04Power rating−0.15
3.8Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game5.5
7.8Hits / game7.7
0.86Home runs / game1.08
3.8Walks drawn / game3.8
20−31Season record21−29
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BAL chance
Our model fair51.0%49.0%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10451%+10947.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+10449%−13757.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBAL wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJack Flaherty SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 16 Kstarted
BALKeegan Akin RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BAL
May 21 vs CLE
last game
May 20 at TB
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
DET·BAL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
3.8
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.5
20−31
season record
21−29
13−12
home record
12−12
7−19
away record
9−17
L6
streak
L3
1−9
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.7
0.86
home runs / game
1.08
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.53
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

DET · BAL · 58 days
Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 2−8
Jun 12, 2025at BALDET 4 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at BALBAL 10 − 1
Jun 10, 2025at BALDET 5 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at DETDET 7 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BALDET 4 − 3
Sep 21, 2024at BALDET 6 − 4
Sep 20, 2024at BALBAL 7 − 1
Sep 15, 2024at DETDET 4 − 2

DET · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L
May 12at NYM2 − 10L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W
May 10vs ATH2 − 1W