bayesRatings

Athletics at Angels

MLB · Thursday, May 21 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATH 3 – LAA 2
← MLB / May 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATH0000011001370
LAA2000000000251
Team box
ATH·LAA
7
hits
5
0
home runs
1
6
walks
1
9
strikeouts
12
142
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-4112
Brent RookerATH2-4000
Darell HernaizATH1-5001
Nick KurtzATH1-3101
Carlos CortesATH1-4000
Shea LangeliersATH1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis SeverinoATH7.032010
Joel Kuhnel (W)ATH1.01010
Mark Leiter Jr. (S)ATH1.01001
Jose SorianoLAA6.26217
Ryan Zeferjahn (L)LAA1.00020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
ATH +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 2 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 55%, LAA 45% · Updated May 21

Expected margin
ATH by 1.0
Expected score
ATH 5.4 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.8
AthleticsThe matchupAngels
−125Our fair odds+125
5.4Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating−0.35
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game5.3
8.5Hits / game7.4
1.10Home runs / game1.14
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
25−24Season record17−33
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics−12555%+10149.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12545%−12154.7%———
SpreadATH by 1.0
ATHAthletics−1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byLAA wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more45%
Athletics wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 6.35 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·LAA
May 20 at LAA
last game
May 20 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
ATH·LAA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.35
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.3
25−24
season record
17−33
10−12
home record
9−15
15−12
away record
8−18
W2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.5
hits / game
7.4
1.10
home runs / game
1.14
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
7.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.35
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ATH · LAA · 57 days
AthleticsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 4−6
May 20at LAAATH 6 − 5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at ATHLAA 11 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 20at LAA6 − 5W
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W