bayesRatings

Dodgers at Angels

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 3:07 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final LAD 10 – LAA 1
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD02050000310110
LAA000100000150
Team box
LAD·LAA
11
hits
5
0
home runs
0
6
walks
0
11
strikeouts
11
120
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD3-5203
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-5102
Andy PagesLAD1-5102
Hyeseong KimLAD2-3201
Yoan MoncadaLAA1-3001
Nolan SchanuelLAA2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki Sasaki (W)LAD7.04108
Grayson Rodriguez (L)LAA3.27744

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +9
LAD +9
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · LAD 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 63%, LAA 37% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
LAD by 2.2
Expected score
LAD 5.9 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
9.6
DodgersThe matchupAngels
−171Our fair odds+171
5.9Expected runs3.7
+0.32Power rating−0.31
5.2Runs / game4.0
3.3Allowed / game5.1
8.8Hits / game7.6
1.35Home runs / game1.13
4.0Walks drawn / game3.8
28−18Season record16−30
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · LAA chance
Our model fair63.1%37.0%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−17163%−14859.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+17137%+12444.7%———
SpreadLAD by 2.2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.2 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 17 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 17 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byLAA wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more55%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more45%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 14 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·LAA
May 16 at LAA
last game
May 16 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
LAD·LAA
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
5.2
runs / game
4.0
3.3
runs allowed / game
5.1
28−18
season record
16−30
15−10
home record
8−12
13−8
away record
8−18
W4
streak
L5
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.8
hits / game
7.6
1.35
home runs / game
1.13
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.33
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

LAD · LAA · 53 days
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 7−3
May 16at LAALAD 15 − 2
May 15at LAALAD 6 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 6
Aug 11, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 4
May 17, 2025at LADLAA 11 − 9
May 16, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at LAALAA 10 − 1
Sep 3, 2024at LAALAD 6 − 2

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
May 16at LAA15 − 2W
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W