bayesRatings

Giants at Dodgers

MLB · Monday, May 11 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SF 9 – LAD 3
← MLB / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0100023039120
LAD0002010003100
Team box
SF·LAD
12
hits
10
1
home runs
1
6
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
148
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD2-4112
Rafael DeversSF2-3312
Willy AdamesSF2-5003
Heliot RamosSF2-4102
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4100
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor McDonaldSF5.19324
Matt Gage (W)SF1.20001
Roki SasakiLAD5.06315
Alex Vesia (L)LAD0.13311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +6
SF +6
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · SF 6lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 39%, LAD 61% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
LAD by 1.7
Expected score
LAD 5.1 – 3.4 SF
Expected total
8.6
GiantsThe matchupDodgers
+158Our fair odds−158
3.4Expected runs5.1
−0.09Power rating+0.29
3.2Runs / game5.1
4.5Allowed / game3.4
8.2Hits / game8.9
0.65Home runs / game1.32
2.0Walks drawn / game3.9
16−24Season record24−16
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAD chance
Our model fair38.7%61.3%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+15839%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15861%−18364.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.7
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.7our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.7 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more51%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more40%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 21 Kstarted
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAD
May 10 vs PIT
last game
May 10 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
SF·LAD
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
3.2
runs / game
5.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
3.4
16−24
season record
24−16
10−12
home record
13−8
6−12
away record
11−8
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.9
0.65
home runs / game
1.32
2.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.57
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SF · LAD · 47 days
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Apr 23at SFLAD 3 − 0
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Sep 18, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SFLAD 10 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SFLAD 13 − 7
Sep 12, 2025at SFSF 5 − 1

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 10vs PIT7 − 6W
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L