bayesRatings

Pirates at Giants

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 9:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final PIT 2 – SF 5
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT010000001250
SF010100305120
Team box
PIT·SF
5
hits
12
1
home runs
1
7
walks
0
8
strikeouts
5
115
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcell OzunaPIT2-3111
Rafael DeversSF2-4211
Luis ArraezSF1-4002
Heliot RamosSF2-4101
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-1001
Willy AdamesSF2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carmen Mlodzinski (L)PIT6.07201
Robbie Ray (W)SF6.04147

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 4 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 50%, SF 50% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 3.8 – 3.8 PIT
Expected total
7.6
PiratesThe matchupGiants
−101Our fair odds+101
3.8Expected runs3.8
+0.00Power rating−0.09
4.9Runs / game3.1
4.2Allowed / game4.2
8.5Hits / game8.0
1.08Home runs / game0.62
4.0Walks drawn / game1.9
21−17Season record14−23
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · SF chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10150%−10751.8%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10150%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh PiratesPKour margin————
SFSan Francisco GiantsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 11%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more24%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITCarmen Mlodzinski RP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 20 Kstarted
SFRobbie Ray SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·SF
May 7 at ARI
last game
May 6 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
PIT·SF
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.9
runs / game
3.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
21−17
season record
14−23
11−9
home record
8−11
10−8
away record
6−12
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.5
hits / game
8.0
1.08
home runs / game
0.62
4.0
walks drawn / game
1.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.55
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

PIT · SF · 44 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Aug 6, 2025at PITSF 4 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at PITSF 8 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at SFPIT 2 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at SFPIT 3 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SFPIT 6 − 5
May 23, 2024at PITSF 7 − 6
May 22, 2024at PITSF 9 − 5
May 21, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 6
Apr 28, 2024at SFSF 3 − 2

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L
Apr 27vs STL2 − 4L

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W