bayesRatings

Padres at Giants

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final SD 2 – SF 3
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD100000001230
SF20000100360
Team box
SD·SF
3
hits
6
2
home runs
1
0
walks
3
10
strikeouts
4
122
pitches thrown
107
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson MerrillSD2-4111
Ramon LaureanoSD1-4111
Casey SchmittSF1-3111
Rafael DeversSF1-2002
Luis ArraezSF2-3200
Willy AdamesSF1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy Vasquez (L)SD5.25322
Trevor McDonald (W)SF7.02108
Caleb Kilian (S)SF1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
SD +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 2 · SD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 52%, SF 48% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 4.0 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
7.7
PadresThe matchupGiants
−108Our fair odds+108
4.0Expected runs3.8
+0.09Power rating−0.07
4.4Runs / game3.1
4.4Allowed / game4.1
7.7Hits / game8.2
0.94Home runs / game0.56
3.4Walks drawn / game2.0
20−13Season record13−21
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SF chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10852%−13757.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10848%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySF wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more25%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 15 Kstarted
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 2 starts: 13.0 IP, 0.69 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SF
May 3 vs CHW
last game
May 3 at TB
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
SD·SF
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.4
runs / game
3.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
20−13
season record
13−21
11−8
home record
7−9
9−5
away record
6−12
W1
streak
L6
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.7
hits / game
8.2
0.94
home runs / game
0.56
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.24
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

SD · SF · 40 days
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2025at SDSF 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at SFSD 11 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at SFSD 5 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at SFSD 4 − 1

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W
Apr 22at COL3 − 8L

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L
Apr 23vs LAD0 − 3L