bayesRatings

Padres at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final SD 10 – SF 5
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD01051102010140
SF220000100582
Team box
SD·SF
14
hits
8
1
home runs
2
2
walks
0
5
strikeouts
8
121
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Xander BogaertsSD2-4112
Jesus RodriguezSF2-3112
Jackson MerrillSD3-5202
Casey SchmittSF1-4112
Miguel AndujarSD3-5101
Sung-Mun SongSD2-4202
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker Buehler (W)SD5.17405
Logan Webb (L)SF4.07604

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +5
SD +5
123456789
largest lead: SF 3 · SD 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 52%, SF 48% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SD 3.8 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
7.6
PadresThe matchupGiants
−107Our fair odds+107
3.8Expected runs3.8
+0.09Power rating−0.07
4.3Runs / game3.1
4.4Allowed / game4.1
7.6Hits / game8.1
0.97Home runs / game0.57
3.3Walks drawn / game2.1
20−14Season record14−21
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · SF chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres−10752%+11945.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10748%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres−0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%
← SD wins bySF wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more35%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more24%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 5.84 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·SF
May 4 at SF
last game
May 4 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
SD·SF
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.3
runs / game
3.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.1
20−14
season record
14−21
11−8
home record
8−9
9−6
away record
6−12
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.1
0.97
home runs / game
0.57
3.3
walks drawn / game
2.1
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.24
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

SD · SF · 41 days
San Diego PadresSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
May 4at SFSF 3 − 2
Apr 1at SDSD 7 − 1
Mar 31at SDSF 9 − 3
Mar 30at SDSF 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2025at SDSF 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at SFSD 11 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at SFSD 5 − 1

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L
Apr 25at ARI6 − 4W
Apr 23at COL10 − 8W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L
Apr 26vs MIA6 − 3W
Apr 25vs MIA6 − 2W
Apr 24vs MIA4 − 9L