bayesRatings

Braves at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 3:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ATL 7 – LAD 2
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL040000012791
LAD000000020220
Team box
ATL·LAD
9
hits
2
2
home runs
1
1
walks
6
7
strikeouts
10
138
pitches thrown
111
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max MuncyLAD1-4112
Mauricio DubonATL1-5003
Matt OlsonATL1-4111
Drake BaldwinATL1-4111
Jorge MateoATL2-3101
Eli WhiteATL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce Elder (W)ATL5.21048
Justin Wrobleski (L)LAD8.27717

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +5
ATL +5
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · ATL 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 44%, LAD 56% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
LAD by 0.5
Expected score
LAD 4.6 – 4.1 ATL
Expected total
8.7
BravesThe matchupDodgers
+126Our fair odds−126
4.1Expected runs4.6
+0.16Power rating+0.31
5.5Runs / game5.2
3.5Allowed / game3.3
9.3Hits / game9.1
1.38Home runs / game1.33
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
27−13Season record24−15
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+12644%+11945.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12656%−14859.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more40%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more29%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 16 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAD
May 9 at LAD
last game
May 9 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
ATL·LAD
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
5.5
runs / game
5.2
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.3
27−13
season record
24−15
12−6
home record
13−7
15−7
away record
11−8
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
9.3
hits / game
9.1
1.38
home runs / game
1.33
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.40
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

ATL · LAD · 46 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
May 9at LADATL 7 − 2
May 8at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 3, 2025at ATLLAD 10 − 3
May 2, 2025at ATLLAD 2 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 1
Sep 16, 2024at ATLLAD 9 − 0
Sep 15, 2024at ATLLAD 9 − 2

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L