bayesRatings

Braves at Mariners

MLB · Monday, May 4 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATL 4 – SEA 5
← MLB / May 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL100003000490
SEA00000500580
Team box
ATL·SEA
9
hits
8
4
home runs
2
2
walks
8
8
strikeouts
6
149
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke RaleySEA1-2113
Austin RileyATL2-4111
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-3112
Matt OlsonATL1-3111
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4111
Drake BaldwinATL1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
JR RitchieATL5.04362
Tyler Kinley (L)ATL1.01212
Logan Gilbert (W)SEA6.06424
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
ATL +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 1 · ATL 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, SEA 49% · Updated May 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.4 – 4.1 SEA
Expected total
8.5
BravesThe matchupMariners
−103Our fair odds+103
4.4Expected runs4.1
+0.16Power rating+0.06
5.9Runs / game4.1
3.5Allowed / game4.0
9.5Hits / game7.6
1.43Home runs / game1.09
3.3Walks drawn / game3.9
25−10Season record16−19
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SEA chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10351%+11446.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10349%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySEA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more38%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLJR Ritchie SP · last 2 starts: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEALogan Gilbert SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SEA
May 3 at COL
last game
May 3 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
ATL·SEA
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.9
runs / game
4.1
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
25−10
season record
16−19
12−6
home record
10−10
13−4
away record
6−9
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
6−4
9.5
hits / game
7.6
1.43
home runs / game
1.09
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.43
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

ATL · SEA · 40 days
Atlanta BravesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Sep 7, 2025at ATLSEA 18 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at ATLSEA 10 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
May 1, 2024at SEAATL 5 − 2
Apr 30, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 21, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 2
May 20, 2023at ATLSEA 7 − 3
May 19, 2023at ATLATL 6 − 2
Sep 11, 2022at SEASEA 8 − 7

ATL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W
Apr 23at WSH7 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs ATH5 − 4W