bayesRatings

Braves at Mariners

MLB · Tuesday, May 5 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATL 3 – SEA 2
← MLB / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000200001360
SEA002000000230
Team box
ATL·SEA
6
hits
3
1
home runs
1
2
walks
3
9
strikeouts
16
144
pitches thrown
121
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL2-3211
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-4112
Mauricio DubonATL2-3002
Josh NaylorSEA2-3000
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce ElderATL6.02239
Robert Suarez (W)ATL1.00002
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.01002
George KirbySEA7.05215
Andres Munoz (L)SEA1.01112

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 50%, SEA 50% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.4 – 4.1 SEA
Expected total
8.5
BravesThe matchupMariners
−101Our fair odds+101
4.4Expected runs4.1
+0.16Power rating+0.06
5.8Runs / game4.1
3.6Allowed / game4.0
9.5Hits / game7.6
1.50Home runs / game1.11
3.2Walks drawn / game4.0
25−11Season record17−19
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SEA chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10150%+10947.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10150%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySEA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more39%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SEA
May 4 at SEA
last game
May 4 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
ATL·SEA
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.8
runs / game
4.1
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.0
25−11
season record
17−19
12−6
home record
11−10
13−5
away record
6−9
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
9.5
hits / game
7.6
1.50
home runs / game
1.11
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.42
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

ATL · SEA · 41 days
Atlanta BravesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
May 4at SEASEA 5 − 4
Sep 7, 2025at ATLSEA 18 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at ATLSEA 10 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
May 1, 2024at SEAATL 5 − 2
Apr 30, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 21, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 2
May 20, 2023at ATLSEA 7 − 3
May 19, 2023at ATLATL 6 − 2

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L
Apr 24vs PHI5 − 3W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W
Apr 24at STL3 − 2W