bayesRatings

Braves at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ATL 7 – LAD 2
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL1400100107120
LAD000000002261
Team box
ATL·LAD
12
hits
6
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
151
pitches thrown
172
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD2-4112
Matt OlsonATL2-5002
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-5102
Jorge MateoATL2-4200
Austin RileyATL1-4101
Mauricio DubonATL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Strider (W)ATL6.01028
Blake Snell (L)LAD3.06425

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +7
ATL +7
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · ATL 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 43%, LAD 57% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
LAD by 0.6
Expected score
LAD 4.6 – 4.0 ATL
Expected total
8.6
BravesThe matchupDodgers
+131Our fair odds−131
4.0Expected runs4.6
+0.15Power rating+0.34
5.5Runs / game5.2
3.5Allowed / game3.2
9.3Hits / game9.2
1.41Home runs / game1.34
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
26−13Season record24−14
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair43.4%56.6%
Kalshi39.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+13143%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13157%−19165.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.6our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more30%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA, 17 Kstarted
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAD
May 8 at LAD
last game
May 8 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
ATL·LAD
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
5.5
runs / game
5.2
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.2
26−13
season record
24−14
12−6
home record
13−6
14−7
away record
11−8
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
9.3
hits / game
9.2
1.41
home runs / game
1.34
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.41
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

ATL · LAD · 45 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 8−2
May 8at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 3, 2025at ATLLAD 10 − 3
May 2, 2025at ATLLAD 2 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 1
Sep 16, 2024at ATLLAD 9 − 0
Sep 15, 2024at ATLLAD 9 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at ATLATL 10 − 1

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W