bayesRatings

Braves at Mariners

MLB · Wednesday, May 6 · 3:10 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final ATL 1 – SEA 3
← MLB / May 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000000010140
SEA00100101390
Team box
ATL·SEA
4
hits
9
0
home runs
1
2
walks
2
12
strikeouts
9
140
pitches thrown
143
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cole YoungSEA3-4001
Julio RodriguezSEA1-4111
Jhonny PeredaSEA2-2100
Dominic SmithATL0-0001
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-3100
Sean MurphyATL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin Perez (L)ATL5.25215
Bryan Woo (W)SEA6.01029
Jose Ferrer (S)SEA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 50%, SEA 50% · Updated May 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.4 – 4.0 SEA
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupMariners
−102Our fair odds+102
4.4Expected runs4.0
+0.17Power rating+0.06
5.7Runs / game4.1
3.5Allowed / game4.0
9.4Hits / game7.5
1.49Home runs / game1.11
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
26−11Season record17−20
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SEA chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−10250%+10947.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners+10250%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 17%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins bySEA wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more38%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 0.56 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 8.44 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SEA
May 5 at SEA
last game
May 5 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
ATL·SEA
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
5.7
runs / game
4.1
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.0
26−11
season record
17−20
12−6
home record
11−11
14−5
away record
6−9
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
9.4
hits / game
7.5
1.49
home runs / game
1.11
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.41
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

ATL · SEA · 42 days
Atlanta BravesSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
May 5at SEAATL 3 − 2
May 4at SEASEA 5 − 4
Sep 7, 2025at ATLSEA 18 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at ATLSEA 10 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
May 1, 2024at SEAATL 5 − 2
Apr 30, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Apr 29, 2024at SEASEA 2 − 1
May 21, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 2
May 20, 2023at ATLSEA 7 − 3

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W
Apr 25vs PHI5 − 8L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W
Apr 25at STL11 − 9W