bayesRatings

Braves at Dodgers

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ATL 1 – LAD 3
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL010000000191
LAD01001100350
Team box
ATL·LAD
9
hits
5
0
home runs
1
3
walks
0
11
strikeouts
7
111
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael Harris IIATL4-4100
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4111
Austin RileyATL2-4001
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3001
Shohei OhtaniLAD1-4001
Dominic SmithATL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (L)ATL7.05207
Emmet SheehanLAD4.26117
Alex Vesia (W)LAD0.10000
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 2 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 44%, LAD 56% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
LAD by 0.5
Expected score
LAD 4.6 – 4.1 ATL
Expected total
8.7
BravesThe matchupDodgers
+128Our fair odds−128
4.1Expected runs4.6
+0.15Power rating+0.32
5.6Runs / game5.3
3.5Allowed / game3.2
9.3Hits / game9.3
1.45Home runs / game1.35
3.2Walks drawn / game4.0
26−12Season record23−14
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+12844%−10751.8%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12856%−11252.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.5
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.5 expected
Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more40%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more29%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 27 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.94 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAD
May 6 at SEA
last game
May 6 at HOU
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
ATL·LAD
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
5.6
runs / game
5.3
3.5
runs allowed / game
3.2
26−12
season record
23−14
12−6
home record
12−6
14−6
away record
11−8
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
9.3
hits / game
9.3
1.45
home runs / game
1.35
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.0
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.39
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

ATL · LAD · 44 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 7−3
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 3, 2025at ATLLAD 10 − 3
May 2, 2025at ATLLAD 2 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Apr 1, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 1
Sep 16, 2024at ATLLAD 9 − 0
Sep 15, 2024at ATLLAD 9 − 2
Sep 14, 2024at ATLATL 10 − 1
Sep 13, 2024at ATLATL 6 − 2

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L
Apr 29vs DET4 − 3W
Apr 28vs DET5 − 2W
Apr 26vs PHI6 − 2W

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L
Apr 29vs MIA2 − 3L
Apr 28vs MIA1 − 2L
Apr 27vs MIA5 − 4W
Apr 26vs CHC6 − 0W