bayesRatings

Pirates at Giants

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final PIT 6 – SF 7
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
PIT110011000200671
SF0011020002017132
Team box
PIT·SF
7
hits
13
2
home runs
1
9
walks
5
9
strikeouts
8
196
pitches thrown
195
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heliot RamosSF2-6312
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-5003
Willy AdamesSF3-6002
Oneil CruzPIT1-5211
Konnor GriffinPIT1-5111
Matt ChapmanSF2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba ChandlerPIT5.05213
Justin Lawrence (L)PIT0.12011
Tyler MahleSF5.25428
Ryan Borucki (W)SF2.00021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
PIT +3
123456789101112
largest lead: SF 1 · PIT 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 51%, SF 49% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.9 – 3.8 SF
Expected total
7.7
PiratesThe matchupGiants
−103Our fair odds+103
3.9Expected runs3.8
+0.01Power rating−0.10
5.0Runs / game3.2
4.2Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.05Home runs / game0.64
4.1Walks drawn / game1.9
22−18Season record15−24
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · SF chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10351%+10548.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+10349%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySF wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more35%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more25%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·SF
May 9 at SF
last game
May 9 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
PIT·SF
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
5.0
runs / game
3.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
22−18
season record
15−24
11−9
home record
9−12
11−9
away record
6−12
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.05
home runs / game
0.64
4.1
walks drawn / game
1.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.53
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

PIT · SF · 46 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
May 9at SFPIT 13 − 3
May 8at SFSF 5 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at PITSF 4 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at PITSF 8 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at SFPIT 2 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at SFPIT 3 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SFPIT 6 − 5
May 23, 2024at PITSF 7 − 6
May 22, 2024at PITSF 9 − 5

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 9at SF13 − 3W
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L