bayesRatings

Pirates at Giants

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 8:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final PIT 13 – SF 3
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT00002260313200
SF000010002371
Team box
PIT·SF
20
hits
7
0
home runs
1
5
walks
3
11
strikeouts
7
124
pitches thrown
232
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-4204
Joey BartPIT4-5302
Nick GonzalesPIT4-6100
Bryce EldridgeSF1-4111
Ryan O'HearnPIT2-5101
Oneil CruzPIT3-6300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Braxton Ashcraft (W)PIT7.06106
Landen Roupp (L)SF4.03138

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +12
PIT +12
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · PIT 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 50%, SF 50% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 3.8 – 3.7 PIT
Expected total
7.5
PiratesThe matchupGiants
+101Our fair odds−101
3.7Expected runs3.8
−0.01Power rating−0.08
4.8Runs / game3.2
4.2Allowed / game4.2
8.4Hits / game8.1
1.08Home runs / game0.63
4.1Walks drawn / game1.9
21−18Season record15−23
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · SF chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10150%−11252.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10150%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.5
Over7.5our total————
Under7.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 17%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 11%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more24%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run32%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.5 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 7%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 3%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: <1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 7.544%
Total over 9.526%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·SF
May 8 at SF
last game
May 8 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
PIT·SF
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.8
runs / game
3.2
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.2
21−18
season record
15−23
11−9
home record
9−11
10−9
away record
6−12
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
8.1
1.08
home runs / game
0.63
4.1
walks drawn / game
1.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.54
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

PIT · SF · 45 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
May 8at SFSF 5 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at PITSF 4 − 2
Aug 5, 2025at PITSF 8 − 1
Aug 4, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
Jul 30, 2025at SFPIT 2 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at SFPIT 3 − 1
Jul 28, 2025at SFPIT 6 − 5
May 23, 2024at PITSF 7 − 6
May 22, 2024at PITSF 9 − 5
May 21, 2024at PITPIT 7 − 6

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L
Apr 29vs STL4 − 5L
Apr 28vs STL7 − 11L

SF · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L
Apr 30at PHI5 − 6L
Apr 30at PHI2 − 3L
Apr 28at PHI0 − 7L