bayesRatings

Giants at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SF 6 – LAD 2
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0010203006100
LAD101000000240
Team box
SF·LAD
10
hits
4
3
home runs
1
1
walks
5
11
strikeouts
8
154
pitches thrown
138
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eric HaaseSF2-4222
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4211
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-5002
Harrison BaderSF1-2111
Willy AdamesSF2-4100
Drew GilbertSF1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian Houser (W)SF5.23234
Caleb Kilian (S)SF1.10001
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD6.16508

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
SF +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · SF 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 40%, LAD 60% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 3.7 SF
Expected total
8.8
GiantsThe matchupDodgers
+152Our fair odds−152
3.7Expected runs5.2
−0.07Power rating+0.27
3.4Runs / game5.0
4.4Allowed / game3.5
8.3Hits / game9.0
0.66Home runs / game1.32
2.1Walks drawn / game3.9
17−24Season record24−17
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshi27.3%76.3%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+15240%+26627.3%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15260%−32276.3%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 8 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAD
May 11 at LAD
last game
May 11 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
SF·LAD
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
3.4
runs / game
5.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.5
17−24
season record
24−17
10−12
home record
13−9
7−12
away record
11−8
W2
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.3
hits / game
9.0
0.66
home runs / game
1.32
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.56
errors / game
0.34

Rating Trend

SF · LAD · 48 days
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
May 11at LADSF 9 − 3
Apr 23at SFLAD 3 − 0
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Sep 18, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SFLAD 10 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at SFLAD 13 − 7

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 11at LAD9 − 3W
May 10vs PIT7 − 6W
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L
May 2at TB1 − 5L
May 1at TB0 − 3L

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W
May 2at STL2 − 3L
May 1at STL2 − 7L