bayesRatings

Dodgers at Angels

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final LAD 6 – LAA 0
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000402000680
LAA000000000020
Team box
LAD·LAA
8
hits
2
3
home runs
0
3
walks
4
7
strikeouts
11
146
pitches thrown
136
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4112
Andy PagesLAD1-4113
Max MuncyLAD2-3211
Josh LoweLAA1-2000
Zach NetoLAA1-1000
Will SmithLAD1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Will KleinLAD2.01002
Edgardo Henriquez (W)LAD1.00002
Jack Kochanowicz (L)LAA6.07624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · LAD 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 60%, LAA 40% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
LAD by 1.9
Expected score
LAD 5.7 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
9.4
DodgersThe matchupAngels
−153Our fair odds+153
5.7Expected runs3.8
+0.27Power rating−0.26
4.9Runs / game4.2
3.4Allowed / game4.9
8.8Hits / game7.7
1.32Home runs / game1.18
3.9Walks drawn / game3.8
26−18Season record16−28
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · LAA chance
Our model fair60.5%39.5%
Kalshi66.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15360%−19966.6%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+15340%+15938.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.9
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.9our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.9 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byLAA wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more53%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more42%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADWill Klein RP · no recent starts on recordstarted
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·LAA
May 14 vs SF
last game
May 13 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
1 day
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
LAD·LAA
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
4.9
runs / game
4.2
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
26−18
season record
16−28
15−10
home record
8−10
11−8
away record
8−18
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.8
hits / game
7.7
1.32
home runs / game
1.18
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.34
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

LAD · LAA · 51 days
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 8−2
Aug 13, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 6
Aug 11, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 4
May 17, 2025at LADLAA 11 − 9
May 16, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at LAALAA 10 − 1
Sep 3, 2024at LAALAD 6 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 2
Jun 21, 2024at LADLAA 3 − 2

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L
May 3vs NYM1 − 5L