bayesRatings

Giants at Dodgers

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SF 2 – LAD 5
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF000020000221
LAD11000300580
Team box
SF·LAD
2
hits
8
1
home runs
1
3
walks
4
10
strikeouts
9
152
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jung Hoo LeeSF1-3112
Will SmithLAD1-3111
Miguel RojasLAD2-3001
Teoscar HernandezLAD3-4100
Alex CallLAD1-1102
Hyeseong KimLAD1-2001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (L)SF5.16427
Emmet Sheehan (W)LAD6.02226
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 3 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 40%, LAD 60% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
LAD by 1.5
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 3.5 SF
Expected total
8.6
GiantsThe matchupDodgers
+150Our fair odds−150
3.5Expected runs5.0
−0.07Power rating+0.26
3.4Runs / game4.9
4.3Allowed / game3.5
8.3Hits / game8.8
0.70Home runs / game1.33
2.1Walks drawn / game3.9
18−25Season record25−18
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · LAD chance
Our model fair39.9%60.1%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+15040%+14640.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15060%−17563.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.5
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.5 expected
San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%
← SF wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more49%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·LAD
May 13 at LAD
last game
May 13 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
SF·LAD
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
3.4
runs / game
4.9
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.5
18−25
season record
25−18
10−12
home record
14−10
8−13
away record
11−8
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.8
0.70
home runs / game
1.33
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.9
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.53
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SF · LAD · 50 days
San Francisco GiantsLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
May 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
May 12at LADSF 6 − 2
May 11at LADSF 9 − 3
Apr 23at SFLAD 3 − 0
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0
Apr 21at SFSF 3 − 1
Sep 21, 2025at LADSF 3 − 1
Sep 20, 2025at LADLAD 7 − 5
Sep 19, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 3
Sep 18, 2025at LADLAD 2 − 1

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 13at LAD0 − 4L
May 12at LAD6 − 2W
May 11at LAD9 − 3W
May 10vs PIT7 − 6W
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W
May 3at TB1 − 2L

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L
May 4at HOU8 − 3W
May 3at STL4 − 1W