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Dodgers at Angels

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final LAD 15 – LAA 2
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD10000504515100
LAA000002000282
Team box
LAD·LAA
10
hits
8
1
home runs
0
9
walks
4
9
strikeouts
7
151
pitches thrown
194
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4205
Mookie BettsLAD2-4211
Jo AdellLAA1-2002
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-4102
Alex CallLAD1-4102
Jorge SolerLAA2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (W)LAD6.07215
Jose Soriano (L)LAA5.11666

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +13
LAD +13
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · LAD 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 62%, LAA 38% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
LAD by 2.0
Expected score
LAD 5.7 – 3.7 LAA
Expected total
9.3
DodgersThe matchupAngels
−160Our fair odds+160
5.7Expected runs3.7
+0.29Power rating−0.28
5.0Runs / game4.1
3.4Allowed / game4.9
8.8Hits / game7.6
1.36Home runs / game1.16
3.9Walks drawn / game3.8
27−18Season record16−29
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · LAA chance
Our model fair61.5%38.5%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−16062%−13757.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+16038%+11446.7%———
SpreadLAD by 2.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 2.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byLAA wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more54%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more43%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 20.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 13 Kstarted
LAAJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·LAA
May 15 at LAA
last game
May 15 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
LAD·LAA
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
5.0
runs / game
4.1
3.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
27−18
season record
16−29
15−10
home record
8−11
12−8
away record
8−18
W3
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.8
hits / game
7.6
1.36
home runs / game
1.16
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.33
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

LAD · LAA · 52 days
Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 7−3
May 15at LAALAD 6 − 0
Aug 13, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Aug 12, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 6
Aug 11, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 4
May 17, 2025at LADLAA 11 − 9
May 16, 2025at LADLAA 6 − 2
Sep 4, 2024at LAALAA 10 − 1
Sep 3, 2024at LAALAD 6 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 2

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 15at LAA6 − 0W
May 14vs SF5 − 2W
May 13vs SF4 − 0W
May 12vs SF2 − 6L
May 11vs SF3 − 9L
May 10vs ATL2 − 7L
May 9vs ATL2 − 7L
May 8vs ATL3 − 1W
May 6at HOU12 − 2W
May 5at HOU1 − 2L

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W
May 5vs CHW4 − 3W
May 4vs CHW0 − 6L