bayesRatings

Cardinals at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final STL 2 – ATH 6
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL0001001002131
ATH000040116131
Team box
STL·ATH
13
hits
13
0
home runs
2
1
walks
2
6
strikeouts
6
131
pitches thrown
144
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH2-4214
Zack GelofATH1-4111
Darell HernaizATH3-4100
Henry BolteATH2-2001
Alec BurlesonSTL3-5000
Nathan ChurchSTL2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (L)STL5.09425
J.T. Ginn (W)ATH6.09013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 4 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, ATH 51% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
Expected total
9.5
CardinalsThe matchupAthletics
+102Our fair odds−102
4.8Expected runs4.7
+0.02Power rating−0.05
4.7Runs / game4.4
4.6Allowed / game4.6
8.0Hits / game8.4
1.15Home runs / game1.10
3.6Walks drawn / game3.8
24−17Season record21−20
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.5%50.5%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10249%+11945.7%———
ATHAthletics−10251%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byATH wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 3.45 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ATH
May 12 at ATH
last game
May 12 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
STL·ATH
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.7
runs / game
4.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
24−17
season record
21−20
10−10
home record
8−9
14−7
away record
13−11
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
8.4
1.15
home runs / game
1.10
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.46
errors / game
0.22

Rating Trend

STL · ATH · 49 days
St. Louis CardinalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
May 12at ATHSTL 6 − 4
Sep 3, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 1, 2025at STLATH 11 − 3
Apr 17, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 3
Apr 16, 2024at ATHSTL 3 − 2
Apr 15, 2024at ATHSTL 3 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at STLATH 8 − 0
Aug 15, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 2
Aug 14, 2023at STLSTL 7 − 5

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L