bayesRatings

Cardinals at Padres

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 8:45 PM CT · Petco Park · Final STL 6 – SD 0
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL0000600006110
SD000000000012
Team box
STL·SD
11
hits
1
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
10
126
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL4-5100
JJ WetherholtSTL1-5102
Nolan GormanSTL1-4001
Alec BurlesonSTL2-5100
Masyn WinnSTL1-3101
Nathan ChurchSTL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevy (W)STL6.01029
Griffin Canning (L)SD4.17625

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +6
STL +6
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · STL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 46%, SD 54% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
SD by 0.8
Expected score
SD 4.7 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupPadres
+119Our fair odds−119
3.9Expected runs4.7
+0.01Power rating+0.10
4.8Runs / game4.4
4.8Allowed / game4.2
7.9Hits / game7.6
1.22Home runs / game0.97
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
22−15Season record22−15
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11946%+11945.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11954%−14859.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more43%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·SD
May 7 at SD
last game
May 7 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
STL·SD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
4.8
runs / game
4.4
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.2
22−15
season record
22−15
10−10
home record
11−9
12−5
away record
11−6
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
7.6
1.22
home runs / game
0.97
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.49
errors / game
0.22

Rating Trend

STL · SD · 44 days
St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
May 7at SDSTL 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SDSD 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at SDSTL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at STLSD 9 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at STLSD 3 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Jul 24, 2025at STLSTL 9 − 7
Aug 29, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 28, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3

STL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W