bayesRatings

Cardinals at Padres

MLB · Thursday, May 7 · 9:00 PM CT · Petco Park · Final STL 2 – SD 1
← MLB / May 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000100100250
SD100000000140
Team box
STL·SD
5
hits
4
1
home runs
0
5
walks
3
8
strikeouts
9
110
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BurlesonSTL1-3111
Xander BogaertsSD1-3001
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD2-3000
Masyn WinnSTL1-4001
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4100
Miguel AndujarSD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Matthew Liberatore (W)STL6.03136
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00001
Michael KingSD6.01126
Bradgley Rodriguez (L)SD1.02102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 1 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 45%, SD 55% · Updated May 7

Expected margin
SD by 0.8
Expected score
SD 4.7 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.5
CardinalsThe matchupPadres
+122Our fair odds−122
3.9Expected runs4.7
−0.00Power rating+0.11
4.8Runs / game4.5
4.9Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game7.7
1.22Home runs / game1.00
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
21−15Season record22−14
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · SD chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+12245%+13442.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12255%−16862.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.8
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.8our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.8 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 14 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%
← STL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more43%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more32%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·SD
May 6 vs MIL
last game
May 6 at SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
STL·SD
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
4.8
runs / game
4.5
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
21−15
season record
22−14
10−10
home record
11−8
11−5
away record
11−6
L1
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.7
1.22
home runs / game
1.00
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.50
errors / game
0.22

Rating Trend

STL · SD · 43 days
St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
Aug 3, 2025at SDSD 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at SDSTL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at STLSD 9 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at STLSD 3 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Jul 24, 2025at STLSTL 9 − 7
Aug 29, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 28, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 3
Aug 27, 2024at STLSD 7 − 5

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W
Apr 27at PIT4 − 2W
Apr 26vs SEA2 − 3L

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L
Apr 27vs CHC9 − 7W
Apr 26at ARI7 − 12L