bayesRatings

Cardinals at Athletics

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final STL 6 – ATH 4
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL4000020006110
ATH030000010461
Team box
STL·ATH
11
hits
6
1
home runs
1
4
walks
5
9
strikeouts
7
148
pitches thrown
173
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Shea LangeliersATH2-4113
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4212
Jose FerminSTL1-3102
Jordan WalkerSTL2-4101
Nick KurtzATH1-3101
Yohel PozoSTL1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andre Pallante (W)STL5.04334
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00010
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH5.07435

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +4
STL +4
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · STL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, ATH 51% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
Expected total
9.5
CardinalsThe matchupAthletics
+104Our fair odds−104
4.8Expected runs4.7
+0.01Power rating−0.04
4.7Runs / game4.4
4.6Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game8.5
1.15Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
23−17Season record21−19
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10449%+13442.7%———
ATHAthletics−10451%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byATH wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ATH
May 10 at SD
last game
May 10 at BAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
STL·ATH
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.7
runs / game
4.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
23−17
season record
21−19
10−10
home record
8−8
13−7
away record
13−11
L2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.5
1.15
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.47
errors / game
0.20

Rating Trend

STL · ATH · 48 days
St. Louis CardinalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ATH 3−6
Sep 3, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 1, 2025at STLATH 11 − 3
Apr 17, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 3
Apr 16, 2024at ATHSTL 3 − 2
Apr 15, 2024at ATHSTL 3 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at STLATH 8 − 0
Aug 15, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 2
Aug 14, 2023at STLSTL 7 − 5

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L
May 1vs CLE5 − 8L
Apr 30vs KC6 − 3W