bayesRatings

Cardinals at Padres

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 3:10 PM CT · Petco Park · Final STL 2 – SD 3
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
STL0002000000230
SD0000000021340
Team box
STL·SD
3
hits
4
1
home runs
1
1
walks
7
7
strikeouts
13
173
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick CastellanosSD1-2112
Jordan WalkerSTL1-4112
Xander BogaertsSD2-4100
Manny MachadoSD0-4001
Jackson MerrillSD1-2000
Alec BurlesonSTL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle LeahySTL5.02045
Gordon Graceffo (L)STL0.10020
Walker BuehlerSD6.03202
Adrian Morejon (W)SD0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
STL +3
12345678910
largest lead: SD 1 · STL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 46%, SD 54% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
SD by 0.7
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.4
CardinalsThe matchupPadres
+117Our fair odds−117
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.01Power rating+0.09
4.7Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game4.2
8.0Hits / game7.4
1.15Home runs / game0.97
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
23−16Season record23−16
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · SD chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11746%+10548.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11754%−13156.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.7
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.7our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.7 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 17%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more42%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more31%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·SD
May 9 at SD
last game
May 9 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
STL·SD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.7
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.2
23−16
season record
23−16
10−10
home record
12−10
13−6
away record
11−6
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.0
hits / game
7.4
1.15
home runs / game
0.97
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.49
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

STL · SD · 46 days
St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 5−5
May 9at SDSD 4 − 2
May 8at SDSTL 6 − 0
May 7at SDSTL 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SDSD 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at SDSTL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at STLSD 9 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at STLSD 3 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Jul 24, 2025at STLSTL 9 − 7

STL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W

SD · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L