bayesRatings

Cardinals at Padres

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 6:15 PM CT · Petco Park · Final STL 2 – SD 4
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000100010271
SD00003001450
Team box
STL·SD
7
hits
5
0
home runs
2
2
walks
2
12
strikeouts
10
128
pitches thrown
163
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD1-4111
Ty FranceSD1-3111
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-4002
Ivan HerreraSTL2-4001
Nathan ChurchSTL2-3001
Freddy FerminSD2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dustin May (L)STL6.03227
Randy Vasquez (W)SD5.06106
Mason Miller (S)SD1.10024

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 2 · STL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 46%, SD 54% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.5 – 3.9 STL
Expected total
8.4
CardinalsThe matchupPadres
+116Our fair odds−116
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.02Power rating+0.09
4.8Runs / game4.3
4.6Allowed / game4.3
8.0Hits / game7.4
1.18Home runs / game0.95
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
23−15Season record22−16
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · SD chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+11646%+11446.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−11654%−13757.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+0.6our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 9%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more41%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more30%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLDustin May SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 10 Kstarted
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·SD
May 8 at SD
last game
May 8 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
STL·SD
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
4.8
runs / game
4.3
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.3
23−15
season record
22−16
10−10
home record
11−10
13−5
away record
11−6
W2
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
7.4
1.18
home runs / game
0.95
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
7.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.47
errors / game
0.26

Rating Trend

STL · SD · 45 days
St. Louis CardinalsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 4−6
May 8at SDSTL 6 − 0
May 7at SDSTL 2 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at SDSD 7 − 3
Aug 2, 2025at SDSTL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at STLSD 9 − 2
Jul 26, 2025at STLSD 3 − 1
Jul 25, 2025at STLSTL 3 − 0
Jul 24, 2025at STLSTL 9 − 7
Aug 29, 2024at STLSTL 4 − 1

STL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W
May 1vs LAD7 − 2W
Apr 30at PIT10 − 5W
Apr 29at PIT5 − 4W
Apr 28at PIT11 − 7W

SD · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L
Apr 29vs CHC4 − 5L
Apr 28vs CHC3 − 8L