bayesRatings

Giants at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SF 6 – ATH 4
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF1020201006140
ATH000010030462
Team box
SF·ATH
14
hits
6
2
home runs
1
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Casey SchmittSF4-5223
Brent RookerATH2-4113
Willy AdamesSF3-5002
Darell HernaizATH2-4000
Matt ChapmanSF1-5001
Rafael DeversSF2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor McDonald (W)SF6.25115
Matt Gage (S)SF1.00000
Luis Severino (L)ATH6.010527

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +5
SF +5
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · SF 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, ATH 53% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 4.6 – 4.3 SF
Expected total
8.9
GiantsThe matchupAthletics
+115Our fair odds−115
4.3Expected runs4.6
−0.08Power rating−0.04
3.3Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.2Hits / game8.6
0.73Home runs / game1.14
2.1Walks drawn / game3.7
18−27Season record23−21
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATH chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11547%+11446.7%———
ATHAthletics−11553%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.3our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more38%
Athletics wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTrevor McDonald SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 22 Kstarted
ATHLuis Severino SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 2.08 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATH
May 15 at ATH
last game
May 15 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
SF·ATH
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.3
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
18−27
season record
23−21
10−12
home record
10−10
8−15
away record
13−11
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.6
0.73
home runs / game
1.14
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.53
errors / game
0.27

Rating Trend

SF · ATH · 52 days
San Francisco GiantsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
May 15at ATHATH 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at ATHSF 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at ATHSF 7 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 2
May 18, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at SFSF 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at SFSF 9 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at ATHSF 4 − 2
Aug 17, 2024at ATHATH 2 − 0
Jul 31, 2024at SFSF 1 − 0

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 15at ATH2 − 5L
May 14at LAD2 − 5L
May 13at LAD0 − 4L
May 12at LAD6 − 2W
May 11at LAD9 − 3W
May 10vs PIT7 − 6W
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L