bayesRatings

Giants at Athletics

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SF 2 – ATH 5
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF0001100002100
ATH010040005100
Team box
SF·ATH
10
hits
10
2
home runs
1
2
walks
1
7
strikeouts
9
122
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis ArraezSF4-5111
Nick KurtzATH1-3113
Harrison BaderSF2-4111
Jeff McNeilATH2-3101
Henry BolteATH2-4001
Willy AdamesSF2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Mahle (L)SF5.010516
Aaron Civale (W)ATH5.06212
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 3 · SF 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, ATH 53% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 4.5 – 4.4 SF
Expected total
8.9
GiantsThe matchupAthletics
+113Our fair odds−113
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating−0.04
3.3Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.6
0.70Home runs / game1.14
2.1Walks drawn / game3.7
18−26Season record22−21
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATH chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11347%+10548.7%———
ATHAthletics−11353%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 12%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more37%
Athletics wins by 3 or more27%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 0.56 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATH
May 14 at LAD
last game
May 14 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
SF·ATH
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.3
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
18−26
season record
22−21
10−12
home record
9−10
8−14
away record
13−11
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.6
0.70
home runs / game
1.14
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.55
errors / game
0.28

Rating Trend

SF · ATH · 51 days
San Francisco GiantsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
Jul 6, 2025at ATHSF 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at ATHSF 7 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 2
May 18, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at SFSF 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at SFSF 9 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at ATHSF 4 − 2
Aug 17, 2024at ATHATH 2 − 0
Jul 31, 2024at SFSF 1 − 0
Jul 30, 2024at SFATH 5 − 2

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 14at LAD2 − 5L
May 13at LAD0 − 4L
May 12at LAD6 − 2W
May 11at LAD9 − 3W
May 10vs PIT7 − 6W
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L
May 5vs SD5 − 10L
May 4vs SD3 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W