bayesRatings

Cardinals at Athletics

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 2:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final STL 5 – ATH 4
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
STL000012002590
ATH1000003004102
Team box
STL·ATH
9
hits
10
2
home runs
2
3
walks
3
4
strikeouts
8
136
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jordan WalkerSTL2-5112
Shea LangeliersATH3-5002
Zack GelofATH2-4111
Nick KurtzATH2-3111
Victor Scott IISTL1-3111
Yohel PozoSTL3-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael McGreevySTL6.05113
Matt Svanson (W)STL1.01002
Riley O'Brien (S)STL1.00002
Jacob LopezATH5.04232
Jack Perkins (L)ATH0.23200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
STL +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · STL 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was STL 49%, ATH 51% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
Expected total
9.5
CardinalsThe matchupAthletics
+105Our fair odds−105
4.8Expected runs4.7
+0.01Power rating−0.04
4.6Runs / game4.4
4.6Allowed / game4.5
8.1Hits / game8.5
1.12Home runs / game1.12
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
24−18Season record22−20
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
STL chance · ATH chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+10549%+10548.7%———
ATHAthletics−10551%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
ATHAthletics+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
St. Louis Cardinals by 13 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 6%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 11%Athletics by 1 run: 16%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← STL wins byATH wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more38%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more28%
Athletics wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
STLMichael McGreevy SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 0.50 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
STL·ATH
May 13 at ATH
last game
May 13 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
STL·ATH
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
4.6
runs / game
4.4
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
24−18
season record
22−20
10−10
home record
9−9
14−8
away record
13−11
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.5
1.12
home runs / game
1.12
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.24

Rating Trend

STL · ATH · 50 days
St. Louis CardinalsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
May 13at ATHATH 6 − 2
May 12at ATHSTL 6 − 4
Sep 3, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at STLSTL 2 − 1
Sep 1, 2025at STLATH 11 − 3
Apr 17, 2024at ATHATH 6 − 3
Apr 16, 2024at ATHSTL 3 − 2
Apr 15, 2024at ATHSTL 3 − 1
Aug 16, 2023at STLATH 8 − 0
Aug 15, 2023at STLSTL 6 − 2

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W
May 3vs LAD1 − 4L
May 2vs LAD3 − 2W

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L
May 5at PHI1 − 9L
May 3vs CLE7 − 1W
May 2vs CLE6 − 14L