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Athletics at Angels

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATH 6 – LAA 5
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ATH2100001011660
LAA2300000000561
Team box
ATH·LAA
6
hits
6
1
home runs
3
6
walks
4
11
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
157
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyler SoderstromATH2-5003
Jorge SolerLAA1-5112
Josh LoweLAA1-4112
Jo AdellLAA2-4111
Jeff McNeilATH1-4111
Nick KurtzATH1-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron CivaleATH5.05522
Scott Barlow (W)ATH1.00001
Hogan Harris (S)ATH1.00021
Jack KochanowiczLAA6.03347
Chase Silseth (L)LAA1.01012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
ATH +3
12345678910
largest lead: LAA 2 · ATH 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 55%, LAA 45% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
ATH by 1.0
Expected score
ATH 5.3 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupAngels
−122Our fair odds+122
5.3Expected runs4.3
−0.06Power rating−0.34
4.5Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game5.3
8.6Hits / game7.5
1.10Home runs / game1.10
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
24−24Season record17−32
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · LAA chance
Our model fair55.0%45.0%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics−12255%−13156.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12245%+10947.7%———
SpreadATH by 1.0
ATHAthletics−1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 1.0 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 10%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byLAA wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more45%
Athletics wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHAaron Civale RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 7.71 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·LAA
May 19 at LAA
last game
May 19 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
ATH·LAA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
4.5
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.3
24−24
season record
17−32
10−12
home record
9−14
14−12
away record
8−18
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.6
hits / game
7.5
1.10
home runs / game
1.10
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.35
errors / game
0.59

Rating Trend

ATH · LAA · 56 days
AthleticsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
May 19at LAAATH 14 − 6
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at ATHLAA 11 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Jun 10, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 1

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 19at LAA14 − 6W
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L