bayesRatings

Athletics at Angels

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATH 1 – LAA 2
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000001170
LAA000000002221
Team box
ATH·LAA
7
hits
2
0
home runs
1
4
walks
1
6
strikeouts
10
105
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA1-3112
Lawrence ButlerATH1-1001
Jeff McNeilATH1-4000
Carlos CortesATH1-2000
Shea LangeliersATH1-4000
Zack GelofATH1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
J.T. Ginn (L)ATH8.022110
Walbert UrenaLAA6.04024
Chase Silseth (W)LAA0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
ATH +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · ATH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 54%, LAA 46% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
ATH by 0.8
Expected score
ATH 5.2 – 4.4 LAA
Expected total
9.7
AthleticsThe matchupAngels
−119Our fair odds+119
5.2Expected runs4.4
−0.06Power rating−0.32
4.3Runs / game4.0
4.6Allowed / game5.2
8.5Hits / game7.5
1.11Home runs / game1.11
3.7Walks drawn / game3.7
23−23Season record16−31
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · LAA chance
Our model fair54.4%45.6%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics−11954%−13757.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11946%+10947.7%———
SpreadATH by 0.8
ATHAthletics−0.8our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byLAA wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more44%
Athletics wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJ.T. Ginn SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 15 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·LAA
May 17 vs SF
last game
May 17 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
ATH·LAA
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
4.3
runs / game
4.0
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.2
23−23
season record
16−31
10−12
home record
8−13
13−11
away record
8−18
L2
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.5
hits / game
7.5
1.11
home runs / game
1.11
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.7
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.37
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ATH · LAA · 54 days
AthleticsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 6−4
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at ATHLAA 11 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Jun 10, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4
May 22, 2025at ATHLAA 10 − 5

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L
May 6vs CHW8 − 2W