bayesRatings

Giants at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final SF 10 – ATH 1
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF00110008010120
ATH000010000153
Team box
SF·ATH
12
hits
5
2
home runs
0
4
walks
5
4
strikeouts
6
133
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Harrison BaderSF1-4214
Luis ArraezSF3-4211
Carlos CortesATH2-4001
Matt ChapmanSF2-4101
Rafael DeversSF1-5101
Casey SchmittSF2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Adrian Houser (W)SF6.04153
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH6.05113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +9
SF +9
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · SF 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 47%, ATH 53% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATH 4.5 – 4.4 SF
Expected total
8.9
GiantsThe matchupAthletics
+111Our fair odds−111
4.4Expected runs4.5
−0.07Power rating−0.05
3.4Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.5
8.3Hits / game8.6
0.76Home runs / game1.13
2.1Walks drawn / game3.6
19−27Season record23−22
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · ATH chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+11147%+12444.7%———
ATHAthletics−11153%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.2our margin————
ATHAthletics−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 13%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 3 runs: 7%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%
← SF wins byATH wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more37%
Athletics wins by 3 or more28%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFAdrian Houser SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·ATH
May 16 at ATH
last game
May 16 vs SF
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
SF·ATH
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.4
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
19−27
season record
23−22
10−12
home record
10−11
9−15
away record
13−11
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.6
0.76
home runs / game
1.13
2.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.52
errors / game
0.31

Rating Trend

SF · ATH · 53 days
San Francisco GiantsAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 3−7
May 16at ATHSF 6 − 4
May 15at ATHATH 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at ATHSF 6 − 2
Jul 5, 2025at ATHSF 7 − 2
Jul 4, 2025at ATHATH 11 − 2
May 18, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
May 17, 2025at SFSF 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at SFSF 9 − 1
Aug 18, 2024at ATHSF 4 − 2
Aug 17, 2024at ATHATH 2 − 0

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 16at ATH6 − 4W
May 15at ATH2 − 5L
May 14at LAD2 − 5L
May 13at LAD0 − 4L
May 12at LAD6 − 2W
May 11at LAD9 − 3W
May 10vs PIT7 − 6W
May 9vs PIT3 − 13L
May 8vs PIT5 − 2W
May 6vs SD1 − 5L

ATH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W
May 7at PHI12 − 1W
May 6at PHI3 − 6L