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Athletics at Angels

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final ATH 14 – LAA 6
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH00600214114150
LAA0013000206110
Team box
ATH·LAA
15
hits
11
2
home runs
1
4
walks
3
9
strikeouts
5
160
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nick KurtzATH3-5205
Zack GelofATH3-5213
Brent RookerATH2-4213
Mike TroutLAA1-3112
Darell HernaizATH2-4201
Colby ThomasATH1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob LopezATH3.27432
Justin Sterner (W)ATH0.10000
Reid Detmers (L)LAA5.28828

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +9
ATH +9
123456789
largest lead: LAA 0 · ATH 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 54%, LAA 46% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
ATH by 0.8
Expected score
ATH 5.2 – 4.3 LAA
Expected total
9.5
AthleticsThe matchupAngels
−117Our fair odds+117
5.2Expected runs4.3
−0.07Power rating−0.32
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.6Allowed / game5.1
8.4Hits / game7.4
1.09Home runs / game1.10
3.7Walks drawn / game3.6
23−24Season record17−31
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · LAA chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics−11754%+11945.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+11746%−14258.7%———
SpreadATH by 0.8
ATHAthletics−0.8our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Athletics by 0.8 expected
Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: 1%Athletics by 11 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 2%Athletics by 8 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 6%Athletics by 3 runs: 8%Athletics by 2 runs: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byLAA wins by →
Athletics wins by 2 or more44%
Athletics wins by 3 or more34%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 12 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·LAA
May 18 at LAA
last game
May 18 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
ATH·LAA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
5.1
23−24
season record
17−31
10−12
home record
9−13
13−12
away record
8−18
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
8.4
hits / game
7.4
1.09
home runs / game
1.10
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.8
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.36
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

ATH · LAA · 55 days
AthleticsLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 6−4
May 18at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 7, 2025at LAALAA 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at LAAATH 17 − 4
Sep 5, 2025at LAAATH 10 − 4
Aug 17, 2025at ATHLAA 11 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 2
Aug 15, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 3
Jun 11, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5
Jun 10, 2025at LAALAA 2 − 1
Jun 9, 2025at LAALAA 7 − 4

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 18at LAA1 − 2L
May 17vs SF1 − 10L
May 16vs SF4 − 6L
May 15vs SF5 − 2W
May 14vs STL4 − 5L
May 13vs STL6 − 2W
May 12vs STL4 − 6L
May 10at BAL1 − 2L
May 9at BAL6 − 2W
May 8at BAL4 − 3W

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L
May 10at TOR6 − 1W
May 9at TOR1 − 14L
May 8at TOR0 − 2L