bayesRatings

Angels at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, May 26 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final LAA 10 – DET 6
← MLB / May 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA00220005110150
DET010131000680
Team box
LAA·DET
15
hits
8
3
home runs
1
2
walks
6
11
strikeouts
12
155
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vaughn GrissomLAA3-5116
Kevin McGonigleDET3-4102
Zach NetoLAA3-4201
Wenceel PerezDET1-3211
Jose SiriLAA1-1111
Jo AdellLAA1-5111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack KochanowiczLAA4.06524
Jose Fermin (W)LAA1.10003
Keider MonteroDET5.28417
Will Vest (L)DET1.14511

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 2 · LAA 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, DET 58% · Updated May 26

Expected margin
DET by 1.1
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.6
AngelsThe matchupTigers
+136Our fair odds−136
3.8Expected runs4.8
−0.30Power rating−0.05
4.0Runs / game3.8
5.2Allowed / game4.3
7.4Hits / game7.7
1.17Home runs / game0.85
3.5Walks drawn / game3.7
20−34Season record21−33
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · DET chance
Our model fair42.3%57.7%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13642%+11446.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−13658%−14258.7%———
SpreadDET by 1.1
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.1 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%
← LAA wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more46%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAJack Kochanowicz SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 8.44 ERA, 11 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·DET
May 24 vs TEX
last game
May 24 at BAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
LAA·DET
−0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
4.0
runs / game
3.8
5.2
runs allowed / game
4.3
20−34
season record
21−33
12−16
home record
13−12
8−18
away record
8−21
W3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
7.4
hits / game
7.7
1.17
home runs / game
0.85
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.7
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.57
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

LAA · DET · 62 days
Los Angeles AngelsDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
Aug 10, 2025at DETDET 9 − 5
Aug 9, 2025at DETLAA 7 − 4
Aug 8, 2025at DETDET 6 − 5
May 4, 2025at LAADET 13 − 1
May 3, 2025at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 2, 2025at LAADET 9 − 1
May 1, 2025at LAADET 10 − 4
Aug 29, 2024at DETLAA 3 − 0
Aug 28, 2024at DETDET 3 − 2
Aug 27, 2024at DETDET 6 − 2

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
May 24vs TEX2 − 1W
May 23vs TEX5 − 2W
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L

DET · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 24at BAL4 − 1W
May 24at BAL3 − 5L
May 22at BAL4 − 7L
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W