bayesRatings

Rangers at Angels

MLB · Saturday, May 23 · 9:05 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TEX 2 – LAA 5
← MLB / May 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX010000100281
LAA20001002580
Team box
TEX·LAA
8
hits
8
1
home runs
1
5
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
131
pitches thrown
164
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike TroutLAA1-4112
Kyle HigashiokaTEX1-3111
Oswald PerazaLAA1-3002
Alejandro OsunaTEX3-3100
Zach NetoLAA2-3200
Nolan SchanuelLAA1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (L)TEX7.05326
Walbert Urena (W)LAA5.05136
Kirby Yates (S)LAA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 3 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 57%, LAA 43% · Updated May 23

Expected margin
TEX by 1.2
Expected score
TEX 5.0 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
8.9
RangersThe matchupAngels
−133Our fair odds+133
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.02Power rating−0.34
4.0Runs / game4.0
3.8Allowed / game5.3
7.9Hits / game7.5
0.96Home runs / game1.19
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
24−26Season record18−34
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAA chance
Our model fair57.2%42.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−13357%−13757.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+13343%+11446.7%———
SpreadTEX by 1.2
TEXTexas Rangers−1.2our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 1.2 expected
Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAA wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more47%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more36%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 22.0 IP, 0.41 ERA, 23 Kstarted
LAAWalbert Urena SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAA
May 22 at LAA
last game
May 22 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
TEX·LAA
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
4.0
runs / game
4.0
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.3
24−26
season record
18−34
11−10
home record
10−16
13−16
away record
8−18
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
7.5
0.96
home runs / game
1.19
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.40
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

TEX · LAA · 59 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at LAATEX 11 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at LAALAA 11 − 8
Jul 8, 2025at LAATEX 13 − 1

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 22at LAA6 − 9L
May 20at COL5 − 4W
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L
May 17at HOU8 − 0W
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L

LAA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L