bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rangers

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ARI 5 – TEX 6
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI0000011035100
TEX000030003681
Team box
ARI·TEX
10
hits
8
0
home runs
1
8
walks
1
6
strikeouts
10
123
pitches thrown
199
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-4114
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4202
Ildemaro VargasARI1-5002
Ketel MarteARI2-4100
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-5001
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryne NelsonARI7.04308
Paul Sewald (L)ARI0.23311
Kumar RockerTEX5.03043
Cal Quantrill (W)TEX1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 3 · ARI 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 47%, TEX 53% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.8 ARI
Expected total
8.0
DiamondbacksThe matchupRangers
+112Our fair odds−112
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.00Power rating+0.02
4.2Runs / game3.7
4.8Allowed / game3.7
7.7Hits / game7.6
0.90Home runs / game0.93
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
20−21Season record20−22
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi53.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11247%−11653.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11253%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIRyne Nelson SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TEXKumar Rocker SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 7.71 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·TEX
May 12 at TEX
last game
May 12 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
ARI·TEX
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.2
runs / game
3.7
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
20−21
season record
20−22
12−9
home record
10−10
8−12
away record
10−12
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
7.6
0.90
home runs / game
0.93
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.49
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

ARI · TEX · 49 days
Arizona DiamondbacksTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
May 12at TEXTEX 7 − 4
May 11at TEXARI 1 − 0
Sep 3, 2025at ARIARI 2 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at ARITEX 7 − 5
Aug 13, 2025at TEXARI 6 − 4
Aug 12, 2025at TEXARI 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Sep 11, 2024at ARIARI 14 − 4
Sep 10, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 0

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 12at TEX4 − 7L
May 11at TEX1 − 0W
May 10vs NYM5 − 1W
May 9vs NYM2 − 1W
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L