bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rangers

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ARI 4 – TEX 7
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI010000003441
TEX110140007100
Team box
ARI·TEX
4
hits
10
1
home runs
2
4
walks
2
5
strikeouts
10
148
pitches thrown
127
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4112
Jake BurgerTEX3-3002
Joc PedersonTEX1-5111
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-3311
Brandon NimmoTEX3-4100
Alejandro OsunaTEX1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zac Gallen (L)ARI4.26424
MacKenzie Gore (W)TEX8.03115
Jacob Latz (S)TEX1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 6 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 48%, TEX 52% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.8 ARI
Expected total
7.9
DiamondbacksThe matchupRangers
+110Our fair odds−110
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating+0.02
4.2Runs / game3.6
4.8Allowed / game3.7
7.8Hits / game7.6
0.90Home runs / game0.90
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
20−20Season record19−22
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11048%+10149.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11052%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 17%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIZac Gallen SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 7.07 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·TEX
May 11 at TEX
last game
May 11 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
ARI·TEX
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.2
runs / game
3.6
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
20−20
season record
19−22
12−9
home record
9−10
8−11
away record
10−12
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.6
0.90
home runs / game
0.90
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.47
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

ARI · TEX · 48 days
Arizona DiamondbacksTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 3−7
May 11at TEXARI 1 − 0
Sep 3, 2025at ARIARI 2 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at ARITEX 7 − 5
Aug 13, 2025at TEXARI 6 − 4
Aug 12, 2025at TEXARI 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Sep 11, 2024at ARIARI 14 − 4
Sep 10, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 0
May 29, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 1

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
May 11at TEX1 − 0W
May 10vs NYM5 − 1W
May 9vs NYM2 − 1W
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W