bayesRatings

Cubs at Rangers

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 6:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CHC 0 – TEX 6
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000050
TEX02021100691
Team box
CHC·TEX
5
hits
9
0
home runs
2
6
walks
4
9
strikeouts
7
143
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh JungTEX3-4211
Alejandro OsunaTEX2-4002
Justin FoscueTEX1-3111
Joc PedersonTEX2-3101
Kyle HigashiokaTEX1-3001
Michael ConfortoCHC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Edward Cabrera (L)CHC5.07516
Jack LeiterTEX4.24056
Jalen Beeks (W)TEX1.10001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +6
CHC +6
123456789
largest lead: TEX 6 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 55%, TEX 45% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
CHC by 0.6
Expected score
CHC 4.3 – 3.7 TEX
Expected total
8.0
CubsThe matchupRangers
−124Our fair odds+124
4.3Expected runs3.7
+0.30Power rating−0.00
5.5Runs / game3.7
4.1Allowed / game4.0
8.8Hits / game7.7
1.31Home runs / game0.89
4.7Walks drawn / game3.7
27−12Season record17−21
10−0Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · TEX chance
Our model fair55.4%44.6%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−12455%−13156.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+12445%+10947.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.6
CHCChicago Cubs−0.6our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.6 expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byTEX wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCEdward Cabrera SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 20 Kstarted
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 6.11 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·TEX
May 8 at TEX
last game
May 8 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
CHC·TEX
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
5.5
runs / game
3.7
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.0
27−12
season record
17−21
18−5
home record
7−9
9−7
away record
10−12
W10
streak
L2
10−0
last 10
3−7
8.8
hits / game
7.7
1.31
home runs / game
0.89
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.51
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

CHC · TEX · 45 days
Chicago CubsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
May 8at TEXCHC 7 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at CHCTEX 6 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 6
Apr 7, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 0
Mar 31, 2024at TEXCHC 9 − 5
Mar 30, 2024at TEXTEX 11 − 2
Mar 28, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 9, 2023at CHCTEX 8 − 2
Apr 8, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 3
Apr 7, 2023at CHCCHC 2 − 0

CHC · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W
May 5vs CIN3 − 2W
May 4vs CIN5 − 4W
May 3vs ARI8 − 4W
May 2vs ARI2 − 0W
May 1vs ARI6 − 5W
Apr 29at SD5 − 4W
Apr 28at SD8 − 3W

TEX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Apr 27vs NYY2 − 4L