bayesRatings

Cubs at Rangers

MLB · Sunday, May 10 · 1:35 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final CHC 0 – TEX 3
← MLB / May 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000000000030
TEX00010002370
Team box
CHC·TEX
3
hits
7
0
home runs
1
0
walks
2
11
strikeouts
7
129
pitches thrown
114
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Evan CarterTEX1-4112
Josh JungTEX3-4200
Nico HoernerCHC2-4000
Alejandro OsunaTEX1-3001
Michael BuschCHC1-3000
Joc PedersonTEX1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jameson Taillon (L)CHC5.14124
Jacob deGrom (W)TEX7.030010
Jacob Latz (S)TEX2.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 3 · CHC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 54%, TEX 46% · Updated May 10

Expected margin
CHC by 0.5
Expected score
CHC 4.2 – 3.7 TEX
Expected total
7.9
CubsThe matchupRangers
−119Our fair odds+119
4.2Expected runs3.7
+0.27Power rating+0.01
5.4Runs / game3.7
4.1Allowed / game3.9
8.7Hits / game7.7
1.27Home runs / game0.92
4.8Walks drawn / game3.7
27−13Season record18−21
9−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · TEX chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs−11954%+10149.7%———
TEXTexas Rangers+11946%−12154.7%———
SpreadCHC by 0.5
CHCChicago Cubs−0.5our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Cubs by 0.5 expected
Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 8%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 15%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byTEX wins by →
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more39%
Chicago Cubs wins by 3 or more28%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCJameson Taillon SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 4.58 ERA, 15 Kstarted
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·TEX
May 9 at TEX
last game
May 9 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
CHC·TEX
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
5.4
runs / game
3.7
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.9
27−13
season record
18−21
18−5
home record
8−9
9−8
away record
10−12
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
7.7
1.27
home runs / game
0.92
4.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.50
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

CHC · TEX · 46 days
Chicago CubsTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 5−5
May 9at TEXTEX 6 − 0
May 8at TEXCHC 7 − 1
Apr 9, 2025at CHCTEX 6 − 2
Apr 8, 2025at CHCCHC 10 − 6
Apr 7, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 0
Mar 31, 2024at TEXCHC 9 − 5
Mar 30, 2024at TEXTEX 11 − 2
Mar 28, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Apr 9, 2023at CHCTEX 8 − 2
Apr 8, 2023at CHCCHC 10 − 3

CHC · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W
May 5vs CIN3 − 2W
May 4vs CIN5 − 4W
May 3vs ARI8 − 4W
May 2vs ARI2 − 0W
May 1vs ARI6 − 5W
Apr 29at SD5 − 4W

TEX · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W
Apr 28vs NYY2 − 3L