bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rangers

MLB · Monday, May 11 · 7:05 PM CT · Globe Life Field · Final ARI 1 – TEX 0
← MLB / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI100000000160
TEX000000000040
Team box
ARI·TEX
6
hits
4
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
7
122
pitches thrown
109
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4001
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4000
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Corbin CarrollARI1-2100
Kyle HigashiokaTEX1-3000
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Soroka (W)ARI6.13015
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001
Jakob Junis (L)TEX2.22102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEX +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: TEX 0 · ARI 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 47%, TEX 53% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.2 – 3.8 ARI
Expected total
8.1
DiamondbacksThe matchupRangers
+112Our fair odds−112
3.8Expected runs4.2
−0.00Power rating+0.02
4.3Runs / game3.7
4.9Allowed / game3.8
7.8Hits / game7.7
0.92Home runs / game0.93
2.8Walks drawn / game3.7
19−20Season record19−21
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · TEX chance
Our model fair47.2%52.8%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11247%−10751.8%———
TEXTexas Rangers−11253%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.4our margin————
TEXTexas Rangers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 14%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byTEX wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TEXJakob Junis RP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·TEX
May 10 vs NYM
last game
May 10 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
ARI·TEX
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.3
runs / game
3.7
4.9
runs allowed / game
3.8
19−20
season record
19−21
12−9
home record
9−9
7−11
away record
10−12
W2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.7
0.92
home runs / game
0.93
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.49
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

ARI · TEX · 47 days
Arizona DiamondbacksTexas Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TEX 4−6
Sep 3, 2025at ARIARI 2 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at ARITEX 7 − 5
Aug 13, 2025at TEXARI 6 − 4
Aug 12, 2025at TEXARI 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Sep 11, 2024at ARIARI 14 − 4
Sep 10, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 0
May 29, 2024at TEXTEX 6 − 1
May 28, 2024at TEXTEX 4 − 2

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
May 10vs NYM5 − 1W
May 9vs NYM2 − 1W
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L
May 2at CHC0 − 2L
May 1at CHC5 − 6L
Apr 30at MIL1 − 13L

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L
May 2at DET1 − 5L
May 1at DET5 − 4W
Apr 29vs NYY3 − 0W