bayesRatings

Rangers at Rockies

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final TEX 6 – COL 7
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0100110306102
COL20220100770
Team box
TEX·COL
10
hits
7
1
home runs
0
4
walks
4
8
strikeouts
6
125
pitches thrown
158
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Justin FoscueTEX3-3113
Ezequiel DuranTEX3-4202
Willi CastroCOL2-4101
Ezequiel TovarCOL1-3102
Brenton DoyleCOL1-3201
TJ RumfieldCOL1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX1.03222
Jose Quintana (W)COL5.27314
Juan Mejia (S)COL1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +5
TEX +5
123456789
largest lead: COL 5 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 62%, COL 38% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
TEX by 1.8
Expected score
TEX 5.9 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
10.0
RangersThe matchupRockies
−165Our fair odds+165
5.9Expected runs4.1
+0.02Power rating−0.57
3.7Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game5.2
7.5Hits / game8.4
0.91Home runs / game0.94
3.6Walks drawn / game2.9
22−24Season record18−29
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · COL chance
Our model fair62.3%37.7%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−16562%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+16538%+11945.7%———
SpreadTEX by 1.8
TEXTexas Rangers−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 1.8 expected
Texas Rangers by 17 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 16 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byCOL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more52%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more41%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 11 Kstarted
COLJose Quintana SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·COL
May 17 at HOU
last game
May 17 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
TEX·COL
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
3.7
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.2
22−24
season record
18−29
11−10
home record
9−13
11−14
away record
9−16
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.4
0.91
home runs / game
0.94
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.39
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

TEX · COL · 54 days
Texas RangersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
May 14, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 13, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
May 12, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
May 12, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
May 11, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 10, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 21, 2023at TEXTEX 13 − 3
May 20, 2023at TEXTEX 11 − 5
May 19, 2023at TEXTEX 7 − 2
Aug 24, 2022at COLTEX 16 − 4

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 17at HOU8 − 0W
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 17vs ARI6 − 8L
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W
May 15vs ARI1 − 9L
May 14at PIT2 − 7L
May 13at PIT10 − 4W
May 12at PIT1 − 3L
May 10at PHI0 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 9L
May 8at PHI9 − 7W
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W